The World Bank says in its “Global Economic Prospects: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment” report that Armenia’s GDP will grow 5.5% in 2019 and 5.1% in 2020. Earlier, in its June report, the World Bank predicted a 4.2% growth for 2019 and a 4.9% growth for 2020.
In its report, the World Bank changed its outlook for economic growth in Armenia in 2019 upward by 1.3 p.p. and in 2020 by 0.2 p.p. The WB’s outlook for economic growth in Ukraine was raised as well – by 0.7 p.p. to 3.4%, in Kazakhstan by 0.4 p.p. to 3.9% and in Uzbekistan by 0.2 p.p. to 5.5%. The World Bank increased its economic growth outlook also for Turkey by 1 p.p., but said GDP will not grow.
Instead, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and Russia have their economic growth outlooks changed downward – by 0.5 p.p. to 2.8%, by 0.3 p.p. to 1.5%, by 0.2 p.p. to 4.4% and by 0.2 p.p. to 1% respectively. The World Bank’s outlook for Moldova is left unchanged. WB analysts say economic growth in Europe and Central Asia slowed down in 2019 to 1.8% hitting the record low in the last four years.
The slowdown came as reflection of the precipitous decline in economic activity in Turkey and the weak activity in Russia amid reduction of oil extraction. In 2018, growth in the region stood at 3.2%.
According to the Armenian finance ministry, the economic growth outlook for this year is changed upward, to 6.3 percent, taking into account the positive developments seen in the country’s economy. The Central Bank of Armenia left its forecast unchanged – at 6.6%.
In the government budget for 2019, economic growth is projected at 4.9% and inflation at 2.7%.
