The World Bank forecasts GDP growth in Ukraine in 2018 at a level of 3.5%, and in the next two years – at 4%.
This is stated in the report “Prospects for the world economy”.
According to the study, in Ukraine, GDP growth in the year 2017 will be 2%. By 2018, the forecast is 3.5%. For 2019 and 2020, the growth forecast is 4%.
Ukraine was classified as a developing country, as well as one that exports goods except oil and gas.
The report argues that economic growth in Ukraine has weakened compared with its neighbors (Europe and Central Asia). The decline in growth rates is associated with a trade blockade in the eastern part of the territories, which affected the extraction of minerals and electricity production.
Growth of the Ukrainian economy is expected with a gradual decline in geopolitical tension. It is expected to increase growth to 4% in the medium term.
Among the risks the WB experts name the escalation of the conflict in the East of Ukraine. This, like other factors, can scare off investors. One of the possible consequences of such a development is the disruption of financing of some EU countries during the next budget cycle. Such risks can increase the vulnerability of specific countries. For Ukraine this is, in particular, the investment of state money in troubled banks.
In general, the report said that the economic growth in 2018 in developed countries will be slightly reduced to 2.2% in the context of gradual curtailment of post-crisis financial incentive programs by central banks and the change in the growth of investment volumes and their stabilization. In the countries with a market economy and developing countries, the growth rate is projected to increase in general in 2018 to 4.5% against the backdrop of recovery of business activity in the countries exporting raw materials.
The international rating agency Moody’s forecasts the growth of gross domestic product of Ukraine by 3.5% in 2018.
