The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has revised up 2018 economic forecasts. The bank has raised Estonia’s economic growth forecast by 0.4 to 3.8 percent. Therefore, it’s expected that Estonia’s economic growth will be the fastest among the Baltic countries this year.
In turn, Latvia’s economic growth forecast for this year was lowered by 0.6 percent to 3.5 percent. Lithuania’s economic growth forecast for this year was also lowered by 0.3 percent to 3.2 percent, while next year’s growth is expected to be 3.5 percent.
According to the bank’s most recent report, economic growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states has picked up considerably in recent years, from an average of 2.9 percent in 2016 to 4.3 percent in 2017, caused by stronger investment and higher wage growth. However, the latest forecast suggests that the economic growth can slow down to 3.8 percent this year and 3.3 percent next year due to the shortage of skilled workers.
The May issue of the bank’s report predicts an average economic growth of 3.0 percent in 2018 and 2.3 percent in 2019 for Eastern Europe and Caucasus. Moldova ranks second among the Eastern Partnership countries after Georgia, for which the EBRD expects an economy advance of 4.5 percent. The European experts forecast that Ukrainian economy will grow by 3.0 percent in 2018 and maintain a similar trend in 2019.
The authors of report appreciate that the economy of Moldova benefited from quite calm period after banking crisis and recession of 2014-2015. The economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2017 was driven by favorable external terms, strengthening domestic demand and good agricultural performance. The money transfers from abroad increased by 11.2 percent, after a considerable decline over the last two years.
According to the World Bank’s report “Macro Poverty Outlook for Europe and Central Asia”, it’s expected an advance of the Moldovan economy in 2018 by 3.8 percent, while current account deficit will deepen from 4.8 percent of GDP this year to 5.2 percent of GDP in 2019 and at 5.6 percent in 2020.
It’s worth noting that EBRD revised up the 2018 forecast for the economy of Belarus. The Bank predicts that the Belarusian economy will grow by 3 percent in 2018 and by 3 percent in 2019. The latest report states that the Belarusian economy has been steadily recovering, with GDP increasing by 2.4 percent in 2017 and by 5.1 percent in Q1 2018.
EBRD presents new economic forecasts for post-Soviet countries
