The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has maintained forecast of economic growth rate of Moldova in 2018 at 3.5 per cent and expects an advance of 4.0 per cent in 2019.
The Moldovan economy will grow by 3.5 per cent in 2018, predicts EBRD in May issue of report: Regional Economic Prospect. Forecasts are above average in the region. The European Bank anticipates an average economic growth of 3.0 per cent in 2018 and 2.3 per cent in 2019 for Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, including Moldova.
Moldova ranks second among the Eastern Partnership countries after Georgia, for which the EBRD anticipates an economy advance of 4.5 per cent. The European experts expect economy of Ukraine to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2018 and to maintain the same trend in 2019.
The authors of report appreciate that the Moldovan economy benefited in 2017 from a relatively calm period after banking crisis and recession of 2014 – 2015. The economic growth of 4.5 per cent in 2017 was driven by favourable external terms, good agricultural performance and strengthening domestic demand. The money transfers from abroad increased by 11.2 per cent, after a considerable decline over recent two years. The Moldovan Leu (MDL) accounted for about 16.8 per cent of US dollar in 2017, and currency pressures persisted for first four months in 2018, has said the report.
The EBRD also notes the actual account deficit has increased from about 4.2 per cent of GDP in 2016 to about 7.6 per cent of GDP in 2017. The international reserve assets rose from $2.2 billion in January 2017, to $2.9 billion in March 2018, thus covering six months of import.
The experts also mention takeover by Transylvania bank of an important package of shares from Victoriabank, positive conclusions reached by IMF mission in March 2018.
The World Bank’s (WB) forecasts are, however, more optimistic, anticipating an advance of the Moldovan economy in 2018 by 3.8 per cent, while current account deficit will deepen from 4.8 per cent of GDP this year to 5.2 per cent of GDP in 2019 and at 5.6 per cent in 2020, states report: Macro Poverty Outlook for Europe and Central Asia, published by WB.
The Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure (MEI) expects gross domestic product to grow by 3.8 per cent in 2018, to MDL 163 billion, MDL 3 billion more than expected. This forecast was coordinated with experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
